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Discussion Starter #1
I keep trying to keep this pandemic in perspective. Still not making complete sense to me.

This article written a year ago about the previous flu season (USA) was very bad too, and without a reaction like this year.
And then there is this New York article written earlier this year.

I realize this is a new virus and perhaps only half or third of the typical seasonal flu time (guessing).
Just that when I look at the numbers I can’t help thinking how it all seems blown out of proportion. I want to blame the news media, while at the same time I want to believe in good intentions.

Seeing news stories about measles from the 1960s being a real fear, and citizens of Michigan getting upset over the continued lockdown there. I’m sure I’m not alone in trying to wrap my head around the reality of the situation.

It’s a morbid subject to be sure when people talk about a percentage of those affected, only wonder if we are all not going to know anything certain until next year.

Problem for me is to keep hearing statements like “the new normal” going forward from here.
Obviously this is a drastic change from the usual ‘normal‘. Society can’t function as such.

Should we expect a yearly shut down of businesses and schools and social events/activities?

And I want to add my point of view comes from the state of Alabama, where the population is 4.9 million and COVID-19 cases currently number only 4000+, with 117 deaths.
New York State is 20 million, Michigan is 10 million. Both where the fraction of cases are vastly increased. I don’t think we can look at things lumped together, needs a localized approach. Maybe short range travel bans, for example.
 

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well coming from a state of 900,000 I tend to agree with you... having said that.. the measures put in place I am sure helped keep the death toll down.. without accurate data from China the world was flying blind and we had to wait to get our own data to really see what's going on... I mean 1.4 Billion people and they only had 60,000 contract it, with less than 5,000 dead... a miracle if there ever was one...

as far as the "new normal".. I just hate that term and it's been over used the last 10 years or so... if everything they called the "new normal" happens it won't be worth living in this country..

shut downs? I think they are trying to prep the nation for it right now... calling it a 2nd or 3rd wave.. I hope they are as accurate with that as the models were to start...

I know Trump says this country wasn't built to be shut down and not work... I agree with him and raise him... the world wasn't designed for this.. in the end I would like to see a honest assessment without either party in charge... see how many suicides, broken homes, beaten kids, drug abuse, alcoholism and bankruptcies the cure has caused... for the future they really need to know an honest answer to that... maybe we should have started with a stay-at-home nationwide for the demographics that are in peril and let the rest continue on...
 

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My two cents.... panic stricken political agenda combined with a lack of actual realistic information. Again opinion only but thanks for giving me some of my tax money back so I can use it to help stimulate the eco my with new exhaust for my motorcycle.
See, he was right again, as usual . . . . . . .

585115






BD
 

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Discussion Starter #7
My sincere belief, and the reason for posting this message in the first place, is that I don’t think people in general can cope with huge numbers.

It’s like whenever they say the deficit is trillions of dollars. Who can figure out that amount of money from whatever their paycheck is or their yearly salary?
It’s just a big number.

Of course it’s just plain worse in this case simply because it’s people, not just a number.
Let’s say you live in a town of only 10,000. Sadly the local newspaper will probably print up an obituary page every day. And tragic personally to others.
Increase that 1000 times and it’s truly awful but that’s the reality like it or not.
And that’s only a sampling of 10 million people!

I’m not trying to make light of the situation, the possibility of terrible things worse than can be imagined is always there.
I just want sensibility to prevail among facts.

Although I’m sure you can see the difficulty in all this. What if someone were drowning offshore on a beach crowded with people. Someone goes in to save the person and drowns while trying.
Now 10 more do the same.
I know you could certainly argue this idea but it would still be a good thing up to at least half drowning, and is there ever a point when to change before that happens.
I could suggest the people in the water might think it’s sacrificial of themselves too instead save the people on the beach so they can go on with their lives.

I can only guess any one of you could understand the panic involved and a need for clearer heads.
Again this is people were talking about. It’s probably just plain lucky that in a real life situation of the above that 100 people don’t go jumping into the water after someone to save from drowning. I’m almost sure the higher risk would exist.
 

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Discussion Starter #8
Oh... yes... Heroes all.
I myself just don’t want to make it a thing for pandemics from now on. Will let it be those on the front lines.
I’d rather buy the ‘war’ bonds.

I say that somewhat tongue-in-cheek. Maybe because I’m not sure what I’m saying anymore. :p :D
 

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I’m sure the people of New York don’t think it’s overblown. Today the US just hit another record number of deaths. People are dying so fast that the bodies are being stored wherever they can find a spot. Remember a short time ago when the US had 15 cases and now we’re at over 600k in two short months. This is not overblown by no means stay safe


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Corona infection mortality is actually approximately identical to earlier flu strains - as reported by the medical experts and the CDC. Media hype and widespread false reporting has blown this thing up... hard to understand or formulate an accurate picture without taking certain aspects of various conspiracy theories into the overall picture. At any rate, do the right thing for your own safety and security, and respect the rights of others in the process.
 

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From the US CDC report 2016...

"Based on data from CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System, the proportion of deaths attributed to P&I was at or slightly above the epidemic threshold for three consecutive weeks from the week ending January 2, 2016, through the week ending January 16, 2016 (weeks 52-2) and again for four consecutive weeks from the week ending February 27, 2016, through the week ending March 19, 2016 (weeks 8-11). The percentage of deaths attributed to P&I peaked at 7.9% during the week ending March 19, 2016 (week 11). During the past five influenza seasons, peak weekly percentages of deaths attributable to P&I have ranged from 8.7% during the 2011-12 season to 11.1% during the 2012-13 season.

Based on 122 Cities Mortality Reporting System data, the weekly percentage of deaths attributed to P&I exceeded the epidemic threshold for the weeks ending January 16, 2016 (week 2) and February 27, 2016 (week 8), and again for 5 consecutive weeks from the week ending March 19, 2016, through the week ending April 16, 2016 (weeks 11–15), and finally, for 2 consecutive weeks from the week ending May 7, 2016, through the week ending May 14, 2016 (weeks 18–19). P&I mortality peaked at 7.8% during the week ending March 26, 2016 (week 12). During the past five influenza seasons, peak weekly percentages of deaths attributable to P&I have ranged from 7.9% during the 2011–12 season to 9.9% during the 2012–13 season."
Nope they don't normally count deaths from pneumonia and flu directly the use reported death causes on death certificates

Another thing to note if I remember correctly the average yearly death rate from pneumonia and another thing to note if I remember correctly the average yearly death rate from pneumonia and influenza pretty much every year is around 500 000.

From 2017 CDC report...

Up to 650 000 deaths annually are associated with respiratory diseases from seasonal influenza, according to new estimates by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US-CDC), the World Health Organization and global health partners.
This marks an increase on the previous global estimate of 250 000 – 500 000, which dates from over ten years ago and covered all influenza-related deaths, including cardiovascular disease or diabetes. The new figures of 290 000 – 650 000 deaths are based on more recent data from a larger, more diverse group of countries, including lower middle income countries, and exclude deaths from non-respiratory diseases
Globally... US alone was 56 000 deaths from P&I in 2017
 

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COVID-19: Approximately 127,601 deaths reported worldwide; 26,059 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 15, 2020.*

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.


To Summarize: COVID-19 Deaths in the US Today 28,383 (That's 2.5 months folks with Social Distancing rules in place)
Flu Deaths in US average per year 12,000 - 61,000 (That's 12 months folks with no social distancing)

If the death rate stayed the same COVID-19 would kill 136,236 in the US which is double the rate of the flu. And that is with the social distancing.
 

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I don't get it ...

I never ever in my life saw a pandemic outbreak (flu, malaria, sars, mers, ebola) which world wide blew the capacities of dealing with death to the extent that bodies were piled in cooling trucks and ideas of mass graves are being brought up.

Just in one country (Italy) the mortality amongst health care workers alone in just 8 weeks is shocking.

Obviously some people still live in denial. Enjoy ... (living in denial, its so much easier, until you or a loved one is hit)

We all know so much more people starve every year. So many people die a violent death in conflicts and wars ... but that is "fortunately far away", right?

Guys ... this bug is called pandemic because no border, no geohraphical distance could stop its fast spread.

The speed and aggressiveness are clogging our health care systems and "after life facilities" ... what more proof about its "seriousness" you want?


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Discussion Starter #15
@Baron58
Well over the whole year sure, except from what I understand wintertime is worse than summertime. So there must be a peak sometime and a lull other times.
More or less like this virus is looking too. But yes for now it’s still a wait and see to know how it really plays out.

@IMARIDER No doubt a population density thing but what’s got me really curious is Los Angeles, what’s up with that? Are they generally healthier people or did they go way beyond everyone else’s social distancing methods.
I’ll try to refrain from thinking they’re withholding info, as China is suspected of doing. :sneaky: ;)
 

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Well over the whole year sure, except from what I understand wintertime is worse than summertime. So there must be a peak sometime and a lull other times.
More or less like this virus is looking too. But yes for now it’s still a wait and see to know how it really plays out.

@IMARIDER No doubt a population density thing but what’s got me really curious as Los Angeles, what’s up with that? Are they generally healthier people or did they go way beyond everyone else’s social distancing methods.
I’ll try to refrain from thinking they’re withholding info, as China is suspected of doing. :sneaky: ;)

New York City: everyone lives on top of each other, all in the same building and most people travel by train and subway all crammed together.
LA: Most travel by car and live in houses and there are no mass trains trains and subways.

New York City was the perfect storm of people crammed together

California and Washington State had early infections and started Social Distancing protocol before anyone else did.
 

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Discussion Starter #17
Infectiousness(?) is also a curiosity to me about this virus...
In my state of Alabama, and locally especially, I haven’t seen results of a drastic spread happen yet.
I say this because from what I’ve seen in Huntsville there appears to be little reason for the low count of cases and deaths. People still gather in small groups, out some places, and of course going to stores for food and drink.

Seems hard to believe Birmingham would be spared too. And yet a mere 117 deaths state wide, last I saw today.
There’s also the gulf coast and city of Mobile, which I thought might be following in New Orleans footsteps. Doesn’t seem to be happening there either.
If anything what seems strange to me is a fairly large number of cases in a corridor between Birmingham and Columbus Georgia. Auburn University region. At least that’s the way I was seeing it.

This is my whole point anyhow, there’s something about the spread of the infection going on I can’t understand.
We know people out here have the virus and there’s no absolute isolation. So I keep thinking in terms of it being as severe as talked about therefore it would always be spreading continually. Or maybe it slowed incredibly somehow. Just seems contrary.
 

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Discussion Starter #18
Well Baron58 maybe I should’ve just waited to see your message before I posted mine there. Ha ha.
Still it’s an interesting thing, I’m not sure anyone can figure it out entirely.
 

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Well Baron58 maybe I should’ve just waited to see your message before I posted mine there. Ha ha.
Still it’s an interesting thing, I’m not sure anyone can figure it out entirely.

The biggest hit areas also seem to correspond to the Airline Hub And Spoke system as well. Phoenix which I am originally from which is the 5th largest city in the US was not hit as hard. Possibly due to the wide spread out nature of the city.
 

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One of the issues with this virus is not everyone will show major symptoms. There will be people wandering around potentially spreading the virus. It’s only when people are tested that we get the infection numbers. This is another reason for social distancing.
 
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